Rice demand and supply projection analysis in Nigeria from 2018 to 2030

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Linda Familusi
Chizoba Obianuju Oranu


Rice is a cash crop in Nigeria that is widely grown and consumed in all geopolitical zones of the country. Rice production in Nigeria has increased over time because of increasing demand for rice, however, the increase in supply is not sufficient to match the increasing demand. This study examined rice demand and supply projection analysis in Nigeria from 2018 to 2030, projecting the aggregate demand and supply for rice in Nigeria, as well as the disaggregated demand by region for rice in Nigerian from 2018 to 2030. The result showed that the aggregate demand for rice in Nigeria was projected at 19,796,832,353 kg with a 67.35 percent projected increase for rice demand in 2030 and the population size is projected to also increase by 36 percent in 2030. The rice disaggregates demand across the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria also showed an increased demand in all zones, with the highest increase of 70.70 % in North central. The aggregate rice supply is projected at 8,773,617,507 kg, indicating a 56.92 percent increase for rice demand in 2030. This shows that the supply of rice in Nigeria will not be sufficient to meet the demand in the country by 2030. The study therefore recommends that the Federal Government and private sectors should strengthen efforts towards increasing domestic production of rice, by using more efficient technologies as well as strengthening agricultural research so as to boost rice production in the country.
Keywords: Aggregate demand, aggregate supply, Nigeria, projected demand, rice

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